The Big picture - Tadawul All Share TASI Index
The retracement of the most recent long-term downtrend (from January 2008 high) in the Tadawul All Share TASI Index has exceeded 90%, a testament to its strength. And, momentum has accelerated over the past two months as enthusiasm for Saudi stocks increases.
Given the degree of retracement, and the lack of any significant pull-back over the past 20 months or so, the odds of reaching, if not exceeding, the 11,738.7 January 2008 peak continues to improve.
A daily, and then weekly close, above that peak points to a continuation of the rally up to at least the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 12,517.34. That’s derived from measuring the full long-term downtrend coming off the 20,966.6 peak hit February 2006.
A monthly resistance zone (over several months previously), from approximately 13,248 to 13,542, follows.